Unearthing the Past, Forecasting the Future

A Discussion of New York’s Historical Weather Data and How to Interpret it Today A public presentation and guided nature walk hosted by the Ghent Climate Smart Committee

By: Lucy Gardner

Photo credit: Lucy Gardner

A historical trove of daily weather recordings in New York State spanning 200 years has recently been rediscovered, and it offers new insights into our climate past, present, and future. This data set, more complete for its time than any other currently known worldwide, charts in detail the meteorological past of New York State—thanks to a network of citizen scientists dating back to 1826. One explicit motivation for the original creation of this network was to allow future generations to evaluate climate change. This new information offers the potential for a richer examination of seasonal changes, shifting growing seasons, climate effects of urbanization, and much more. 

Photo credit: Lucy Gardner

“We have an enormous trove of lost data of scientific value that has been sitting under our noses for years,” says Anton Seimon, a climate scientist with the Bard College Center for Environmental Policy. “Albany, New York is one of the global centers of atmospheric science research. The fact that we all managed to miss this for so many years…it’s breathtaking.” 

The May 3 event, Unearthing the Past, Forecasting the Future, is hosted by the Ghent Climate Smart Community Task Force at the West Ghent Community Center at 1pm—RSVPs are recommended, bit.ly/ForecastingFuture. Conrad Vispo and Anna Duhon of the Hawthorne Valley Farmscape Ecology Program will detail the first-of-its-kind historical meteorological and phenological network of citizen science throughout New York State from 1826-1872. Kerissa Fuccillo Battle, the Founding Director of Community Greenways Collaborative, will demonstrate how historical records of plant phenology — the seasonal timing of events — have already revealed multi-week changes in springtime flowering and leaf-out. Anton Seimon will then outline some of the major research questions to guide analysis as we compare the historical archives to current data collected by the New York State Mesonet, a contemporary version of the historical network. 

The program will be followed by a Q&A session to address the climate questions that continue to puzzle us. At 2:30 pm, Kerissa Fuccillo Battle and Anna Duhon will lead an instructive nature walk to teach others how to create a phenology trail, demonstrating methods to observe and record the timing of seasonal events in plants and animals, to advance our understanding of nature and help detect changes over time. There will also be an historic weather station set up to demonstrate some of the tools used by those meteorologists of the 19th century. 

This event is hosted by the Ghent Climate Smart Community Task force and co-sponsored by the Chatham Climate Smart Committee and the Claverack Climate Smart Committee. 

Photo credit: Lucy Gardner

Saturday, May 3

Presentation at 1 pm, walk at 2:30 pm 

West Ghent Community Center, 1041 Co Rte 22 West, Ghent, NY 12075 RSVP to reserve your free ticket: bit.ly/ForecastingFuture 

Low-waste event, bring refillable water bottles 

Ghent Climate Smart Community Task Force 

In 2015, the Town of Ghent joined the Climate Smart Community program administered by the NYS Department of Conservation’s Office of Climate Change and pledged to become a Climate Smart Community. The Ghent Climate Smart Community Task Force now serves as the central body to promote and support climate mitigation, adaptation, and education in the community, and advises the Ghent Town Board on plans, programs, and activities that are part of the Climate Smart Community Program. Learn more at bit.ly/ghentcsc. 

Kerissa Fuccillo Battle PhD is a research ecologist and community science activist focused on climate change impacts and social-ecological connectivity. Her non-profit, Community Greenways Collaborative, launched the New York Phenology Project in 2012 and led the analysis on the modern-historic comparative phenology project in collaboration with Hawthorne Valley Farmscape Ecology Program. She is interested in how natural history observation and public participation in science research can deepen human connection with landscape and foster bioregional resilience. 

Anna Duhon has worked as a social science researcher with the Hawthorne Valley Farmscape Ecology Program since 2009, and grew up in the Berkshires. She has been part of the team working with the historical meteorological and phenological dataset at the Farmscape Ecology Program since soon after it was uncovered, and has enjoyed finding opportunities to help students and the public understand what these 19th century observations might tell us about the local impacts of climate change, as well as engage in making their own citizen science observations. 

Anton Seimon PhD teaches climate science at the Center for Environmental Policy at Bard College and also coordinates research programs in the atmospheric and environmental sciences. He is active in science education for broader audiences, developing content for National Geographic and other partners. 

Conrad Vispo is a wildlife ecologist at the Hawthorne Valley Farmscape Ecology Program. He has been fascinated by historical ecology as a way of better understanding the present and potential future of our landscape. It is that interest which has led to his excitement about the historical meteorology and phenology data.